and Investing
If so, it isn’t because of this So the Wall Street Journal published an article about how Donald Trump is losing the trade war with China. A serious matter, if true. Yet whether it’s true or not, this article doesn’t make the case, even though written by Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Council … Continue reading “WSJ: Trump is losing the trade war with China”
The cornerstone of John Maynard Keynes’ General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money is the rejection of one of the pillars of classical economics, and indeed of virtue itself classically understood. That pillar is saving. In that classical world, saving is a fundamentally important action, crucial to economic survival and growth. From it flows the … Continue reading “The Paradox of Unthrift”
There is something different, something new and unprecedented, about the generations of the 20th and 21st centuries as compared with all those that went before them. This was already noted in 1930 by the great Spanish journalist and philosopher José Ortega y Gasset, when he unveiled[1] the phenomenon of el hombre-masa, the mass-man, otherwise known … Continue reading “Consumers of the World, Unite!”
The current fracas with regard to immigration through the southern border of the United States will die down in time, and another issue will replace it in the headlines, in breaking news announcements, in round-table discussions. There will not be a resolution any time soon. But what is important is to understand the underlying issues … Continue reading “Immigration, Migration, and Imbalances”
The trickle of articles discussing the proposed Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) has turned into a veritable flood. Not surprisingly, the lion’s share of these articles oppose the idea of border adjustment. It would be tedious to run through them all; suffice it to say that the primary argument is that such a tax would raise … Continue reading “Border-Adjustment Sleight of Hand?”
The persistent trade deficit being run by the US, which is the major manifestation of the lopsided global trading system, has to be dealt with to ward off economic disaster. The reason for this is outlined specifically in this previous post, and generally in these posts. It is a sad but revealing commentary that it has … Continue reading “The Border Adjustment Tax”
Since the November election results, markets have been gaining – so much so that the big Wall Street trading firms booked eye-popping earnings in the fourth quarter. “Citigroup’s $3.7 billion trading haul was its best fourth-quarter showing since the financial crisis. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., which reported its results last week, had its best fourth-quarter for trading ever,” reports … Continue reading “Trumponomics and the Strong Dollar”
Donald Trump’s election victory on November 8th is now a fact. Reactions to it have not been lacking, of course. On the economic front, they have ranged from the cautiously optimistic to predictions of utter doom. For their part, the financial markets went from downturn to upturn in short order (as chronicled here by Jerry … Continue reading “Trumponomics and the Great Rebalancing”
The 2013 movie Elysium depicts a dystopian future of unremitting, jarring poverty juxtaposed with serene, detached wealth. Literally detached: wealth resides in a lavishly equipped, lebensraum-furnished space station, high above an impoverished, exhausted Earth. The planet is only useful as a source of provision and maintenance for the space station; its fruits have been extracted … Continue reading “On the Road to Elysium”
We can conduct a similar analysis of the European economy as we did for the US economy. We will restrict our discussion to the Euro Area, the countries which share a common currency, the euro. The euro creates a unique, separate trading bloc, the internal dynamics of which need to be understood both to assess the … Continue reading “Prospects for the European Economy”
THE WORLD ECONOMY IN RÉSUMÉ In the previous post we outlined the structural condition of the world economy, and in particular the structural flaws it contains. The main flaw is the divorce between production and consumption. Prior to the establishment of this new macroeconomic structure, supply and demand were roughly in balance in the domestic … Continue reading “Prospects for the US Economy”
The Economics of the 2016 Election Cycle The current election cycle in the United States is like none other in recent memory. At least in terms of vitriol, it is no contest. But beyond the partisan slams back and forth lies a deeper fundamental reality which really lies at the heart of the contest. In … Continue reading “What This Election is Really All About”
Michael Pettis is one contemporary economist whose blog is worth reading. His books The Volatility Machine and The Great Rebalancing are required reading for those who would understand the workings of international trade relations, currency movements, and financial markets. His comments regarding the recent “Brexit” vote by the UK’s electorate are worth delving into. “Last Friday’s … Continue reading “Pettis on Brexit”
When Schumpeter writes, “Now to the question: what is a savings account?”,[1] he is not being facetious. There is more to savings than meets the eye. Of course, the bare fact of saving is simple enough to understand. Rather than spend all of our earnings, we take some and put it to one side. What … Continue reading “The Problem of Saving”
Do floating exchange rates work? By which we mean, do floating exchange rates bring countries, national economies, into equilibrium? Equilibrium here means that trade between countries is in balance. Thus, exports and imports of goods and services, although in constant fluctuation as economies progress along divergent paths, balance each other over time. With this we do … Continue reading “The Trouble with Exchange Rates”
Michael Lewis, the author of various illuminating accounts of the events and progressions of the great financial crisis of 2008 – one of which became an Oscar-winning Hollywood movie – this time provides us with an illuminating account of someone else’s book – Mervyn King’s newly published The End of Alchemy. The thesis is a … Continue reading “An End to Alchemy?”
“It is a truth universally acknowledged that a single country in possession of a current account surplus must be in need of an export market.” With apologies to Jane Austen, of course: the sentiment thus expressed actually is anything but universally acknowledged. In fact, it flies in the face of received wisdom. We are accustomed … Continue reading “Is There a PIIG in Germany’s Parlor?”
The euro seems to be on its last legs, and the vision which inspired its genesis seems to have vanished from the politicians sponsoring it. The recent spat with England and Prime Minister Cameron has only served to highlight the vacuum in vision. Previously, whenever England was scapegoated, English politicians skulked like whipped curs, and … Continue reading “How to Make the Euro Project Work”